How Long Will Rishi Sunak Last As UK Prime Minister?
Rishi Sunak may be on the cusp of delivering a new Brexit deal for the UK, but bookmakers don’t see it having any impact on his chances of winning the next UK general election.
In fact, it appears as though Sunak is steadily running out of time to save his job and the Conservative party from electoral defeat in 2024.
But he also won’t be gone until the public head to the ballot boxes.
That’s what can be gleaned from the latest polling and politics betting data, which suggest Sunak’s hopes of winning the next election are fading fast.
The prime minister recently returned from Northern Ireland having agreed to the Windsor Framework - a new trading agreement with the EU that overrides Boris Johnson’s flimsy Withdrawal Agreement and actually appears like a workable solution to an impossible problem.
Under the new deal goods traded between mainland Britain and Northern Ireland will only be checked if they are to be moved on to Ireland, and therefore the rest of the EU.
Sunak and EU chief Ursula von der Leyen approve of the deal, but the Tory PM must get it past his backbenchers and the DUP first.
Nevertheless, it has been hailed as a significant breakthrough in Brexit negotiations and an actual win for the UK.
Sunak has immediately leaped on the success by now focusing his policies towards migrants and asylum seekers crossing the English channel in dangerously small boats, making the act illegal.
Yet no matter how “hard” Sunak swings to the right of his party, he looks destined to lose the next election.
Rich Sunak Odds
That’s according to both political betting sites and polling companies who have been assessing the latest ups and downs in Sunak’s political career to pitch predictions of when he could walk.
Right now, the bookies reckon he’ll be gone in 2024 when the Tories lose the election. Sunak’s odds of being ousted in 2023 have now expanded to 5/1.
The only realistic way Sunak is ditched before the next scheduled UK election is if he faces a monumental rebellion over Brexit - perhaps instigated by Boris Johnson - or if the May local elections are so bad that he resigns.
Both those outcomes appear unlikely for now, but the Tories won’t be happy for long.
After all, polling from Redfield Wilton has shown support for the government still falls 26 points behind Labour.
That is a monumental mountain for any political party to climb, but for one that’s been in government for 13 years it’s potentially insurmountable.
What’s more, UK bookmakers have sunk Sir Keir Starmer into the firm favourite position to be the PM after the next election, at odds of 2/7 with Ladbrokes. Surely Labour can’t slip up from here.
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Can Sunak Bounce Back?
Saying that, Sunak will hope he still has time to mount a recovery in the polls and offer a viable electoral option for the British public.
The former banker looks likely to offer some form of energy bills support heading into next winter, and says he is determined to tackle inflation.
If the West can help Ukraine stave off Russia’s advances over the coming months then the economy may stabilise somewhat.
But what Sunak really needs is a boost in his approval ratings - similar to what Johnson had in 2019 – to get his support growing again.
However, despite what betting apps say neither Sunak nor Starmer ignite much passion in voters, which is why the public are looking at policy and wondering what more the Tories can do.
If Sunak can supercharge his image, he has the potential to eat into Starmer’s lead.
This begins with looking statesmanlike and the new Brexit deal certainly helps lay the ground for further poll boosts.
But it’s not enough on its own - and Sunak has mere months to increase the optimism of the British public before it’s too late.
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